… In This Issue.

Lunch at the Queen Mary.

Quote of the Month - Mark Twain.

"The Redefinist Fallacy" by Paul Ricci

"Another Famous Problem Solved" From Benito Franqui.

"God Bless You: and other post hoc fallacies" by Dave Silva.

Humor - 6th Grade History.

 

Next Meeting: April 28th

No Regular Meeting in April!

Come to our Fifth Anniversary Luncheon

On the Queen Mary Instead!

In case you haven’t heard, we are celebrating our Fifth Anniversary Luncheon on the Queen Mary on Sunday, April 28, at 12:00. See the enclosed flyer for details.

Our host is Roy Sorge, Captain of the Queen Mary and Humanist Chaplain. Our guest speaker is Dr. Eugenie Scott, Executive Director of the National Center for Science Education (NCSE) and 1998 recipient of the American Humanist Association Isaac Asimov Science award. Her topic is: "What’s New in Evolution and Anti-Evolution".

We will have as special guests, Lisa Jo Singletary, founder of the Humanist Outreach Group in Orange County, which led to the formation of our chapter (also former President of the Humanist Association of Los Angeles and, now, one of the founders of the Humanists of Las Vegas), and Lois Lyons, current Co-

President of the Humanist Association of Los Angeles, Secretary of the American Humanist Association, and Vice Chairperson of the Chapter Assembly.

We also have an additional option related to the luncheon. Roy Sorge is also Chief Historian of the Queen Mary and has offered to lead a tour of the Queen Mary starting at 10:30 am on April 28 (Meet at the location of the luncheon – room still to be determined). Cost is $5.00 per person.

Or, come early or stay afterwards and enjoy the "sea air", walk around the ship on your own, or stroll through Queen Mary Seaport village.

For Information contact Peter Anderson at 714-446-9283 (anderspo@cs.com) or Dave Silva at 562-493-8812. For Queen Mary Information call 562-435-3511.

 

Quote of the Month:

"The best cure for Christianity is reading the Bible." Mark Twain.

 

THE REDEFINIST FALLACY

By Paul Ricci

The meaning and use of ad hoc hypotheses: An ad hoc assumption or hypothesis is introduced in a defense ". . .for the sole purpose of saving a hypothesis seriously threatened by adverse evidence; ft would not be called for by other finds and, roughly speaking, it leads to no additional test implications." (Carl Hempel, see Bibliography)

Another way of recognizing ad hoc hypotheses is : (1)if the hypothesis was brought in solely for the purpose of saving a weakly tested hypothesis and (2) if the hypothesis itself has been previously untested and not verified in any way, then the probability it is ad hoc is even more likely.

A political example: Libertarians often claim that a pure laissez faire (‘hands off’) capitalism can be neither an evil in itself nor lead to an evil in society. This sounds like an innocent enough empirical claim, but whenever counter claims are offered to show this claim false, they were explained away. For example, capitalism in the early days of the industrial revolution, and especially in Great Britain, led to exploitation of workers, especially children, who worked ten and twelve hours a day, six days a week, in underground mines and in factories. Libertarians never let this horror bother them for they argued that this exploitation of workers was due either to governmental interference" or to the greed of certain capitalists. (Their first and second ad hoc defense!) They also argued that, after all, it was their parents who sent their children to work under such horrid conditions, not the capitalists. (Another ndJ2 Q.C. hypothesis, though it may well have been true. Of course, they never explain why both parents and children had to work in order to support the family!) Libertarians have also argued that, had ft not been for capitalism during the industrial revolution, these children would have starved to death as babies or never been born at all! (Once again, though this may have some truth to it, perhaps they would have been better off not being born at all or have died as babies. Does this ad hoc explanation justify the exploitation of children?)

One defender of the Libertarian cause even suggested that exploitation of workers during the industrial revolution should not really be judged by the moral standards of today, but by the moral standards of that day! Really? In more contemporary times, the evils of capitalism (the tobacco industry and Enron come to mind here) are explained a way by trying to show that modern capitalism isn’t a pure form and has been corrupted by governmental laws.

All these defenses boil down to the fact that Libertarians simply will not count anything against the goodness of Laissez-faire capitalism; it is simply looked at as being analytically true. Obviously defining laissez-faire capitalism in this way will fool no one; it is arbitrary and capricious. If everything that has happened or conceivably could happen, is always consistent with the goodness of laissez-fake capitalism, then their claim is empty, vacuous and of little importance since it is now analytic and not empirical (synthetic). Their defense has now switched from observable data to being clever at explaining away counterexamples.

Another controversial example of the Redefinist Fallacy should indicate not only its frequency but its importance. Consider the following:

Certain religionists never tire of telling us that God loves mankind and each and every one of us. But what would count against this apparent synthetic (empirical) claim? Well, what about the tragic deaths of some six million Jews during the Holocaust of WWII?

‘Well,’ it is claimed, ‘God loved all those innocent people but allowed them to die for some good reason.’ But what possible good reason could offset the agony, terror and death of millions of people?’

‘Well, God has his reasons and he simply chooses not to tell us.’

‘But what about little five-year-old Johnny tragically shot by a police officer when Johnny raised a toy gun in a darkened room?’

‘Well, once again, God had his reasons but these are inexplicable to our finite minds.’ But then what would count against the claim that God loves mankind? Some of the greatest of tragedies happen over and over yet those who believe that God loves mankind find no inconsistency between this claim and those tragedies. The claim has, as in the Libertarian claim, become empty. (You will all recognize this, no doubt, as the age-old problem of evil and suffering in the world.)

This is not to say, however, that the defender of this claim is not warranted in defending the ad hoc assumption; there is nothing irrational in this. It is only to say the defender of this belief cannot switch the main assertion from synthetic to analytic when the going gets rough. To say God has his reasons but we cannot know them is surely suspect, especially when men of the cloth seem to know what God’s reasons are in some cases but not in all cases. How do we distinguish between those cases where we know and where we do not know God’s reasons? The distinction appears to be arbitrary and capricious especially since this ad hoc assumption pertaining to God cannot be disproved, and it is logically possible. Ultimately, the defender of such religious claims should make ft clear at the outset what will (and will not) count as evidence against God’s loving mankind and each one of us. If this is not done, further discussion seems to be superfluous, a waste of time. (P. Ricci see Bibliography)

The following example concerning the Flat Earth Society was taken from the L.A. Times a number of years ago: The leader of the Flat Earth Society called Lunar Orbiter's photograph of the Earth a fake.

"It’s a fraud, a fake, a piece of trickery or deceit - Look at the photograph the satellite took. Notice those lines across the bottom of the picture. They show it’s a composite, a mock up."

Stenton, the secretary of the International Flat Earth Research Society, and his followers-- and he says he has them all over the world-- believe that the earth is not only flat, but static in space, and that the theory of gravity was advanced to support the spinning earth theory.

Talking to reporters, Stenton answered a few questions raised by round-earthers:

The voyage of Sir Francis Chichester around the world?

"He was just following a zig-zag course ‘round the fiat disc of the earth."

Astronauts wheeling around the earth in space?

"They’ve only been buzzing around in a flat circle above the flat earth. Why, if they were really out in space, they would fly off and never be seen again."

[Although not included in the above article, when asked how they explain why a large ship appears to slowly disappear below the horizon as it travels further out to sea, they claim that refraction of light through the atmosphere bends the light in such a way that after a distance the ship slowly disappears.

Notice their ingenuity in explaining away the facts that appear to prove the rotundity of the earth. ft seems to make little difference to them that their semi-scientific explanations don’t agree with the facts of science. For example, their use of the refraction of light to explain why large shins disappear over the horizon after a distance is in the WRONG direction; such refraction allows us to actually see slightly BELOW the horizon as is true of the sun and moon when they are on the horizon. These attempts make use of ad hoc reasoning to support their view.

Such explanations are not unlike creationists who need to explain why stars appear hundreds of thousands of light-years away They do this by claiming that light has actually slowed down over the millennia (some ten or so) to give the APPEARANCE of such distant stars. The further stars are from us, the faster light was moving just the correct speed to allow a 10,000 year-old universe! (Of course, the data over the past couple of centuries shows no such slowing down of the velocity of light. As a matter of fact, the first somewhat accurate measurement of the speed of light in the 18th century was actually LOWER than the current, more accurate, measurements.)

THE EXAMPLE OF THE FIRE-BREATHING DRA GON.

‘‘A fire-breathing dragon lives in my garage." Suppose I seriously make such an assertion to you. Surely you would want to check ft out, see for yourself. There have been innumerable stories of dragons over the centuries, but no real evidence. What an opportunity!

"Show me, "you say. I lead you to my garage. You look inside and see a ladder, paint cans, an old tricycle - but no dragon.

"Where’s the dragon?" you ask.

"Oh, she’s right there," I reply, waving vaguely. "I neglected to mention she’s an invisible dragon."

You propose spreading flour on the flour of the garage to capture the dragon’s footprints.

"Good idea, "I say, "but the dragon floats in the air"

Then you will use an infrared sensor to detect the in visible fire.

"Good idea, but the invisible fire is also heatless."

You’ll spray-paint the dragon and make her visible.

"Good idea except she’s an incorporeal dragon and the paint won’t stick."

And so on. I counter every physical test you propose with a special explanation (called AD HOC hypotheses, my comment) of why it won’t work

Now, what’s the difference between an invisible, incorporeal, floating dragon who spits heatless fire and no dragon at all? if there’s no way to disprove my contention, no conceivable experiment that would count against it, what does ft mean to say my dragon exists? Your inability to in validate my hypothesis is not at all the same thing as proving it true. Claims that cannot be tested, assertions immune to disproof are veridically worthless, whatever value they may have in inspiring us or in inciting our sense of wonder. What I’m asking you to do comes down to believing, in the absence of evidence, on my say-so.’

Now another scenario: suppose that several people of your acquaintance, including people that ... don’t know each other, all tell you they have dragons in their garages - but in every case, the evidence is maddeningly elusive. All of us admit we’re disturbed at being gripped by so odd a conviction so ill-supported by the physical evidence. None of us is a lunatic. We speculate about what it would mean if invisible dragons were really hiding out in garages all over the world... Id rather it not be true, I tell you. But maybe all those ancient European and Chinese myths about dragons weren’t myths at all...’

(The allusion to certain religious beliefs is unmistakable here. My comment)

Carl Sagan, THE DEMON-HA UNTED WORLD, 1996, (pps. 171-172)

Some last examples of the Redefinist Fallacy taken from my text:

Fundamentals of Critical Thinking, 2nd Ed.

a) If I were to tell you that, since we last met, the universe and everything within it has doubled in size, what would be your reaction? Could this assertion be proved false? What could count against such a claim?

b) Suppose I now try to convince you that you were having a perfect hallucination of the flag (or television, or whatever) you think you see in front of the room. What would count as a counter-example to such a claim? What might be a reply to your counter-example?

c) Marxists have often argued that capitalism always involves worker exploitation. But when it is pointed out to those Marxists that many people enjoy their work under capitalist management, they reply by saying these workers are being exploited but are not a ware of it. Do you suspect something wrong with this kind of ad hoc reply?

d) I was once told by a student that the group he belonged to was not a religion, but just a way of life. He tried to convince me that religious organizations are all harmful because they become institutionalized and stray from the word of God after all, religion was responsible the Crusades, the Inquisition, the Thirty-years war in Europe, and the many witch trials in the past centuries. After further questioning he told me that his group not only believed in God, the Resurrection, God’s triune nature, the infallibilli7 of the Bible and man ~s need for God. I suspected something had gone wrong with his claim that he belonged to no religion. What do you think?

e) In the tumult of the ongoing creation-evolution debates, creationists often make the bold claim that there were simply no intermediate forms between classes of animals or even species. Evolutionists often cite the remains of a prehistoric creature called Archaeopteryx as a counter-example of the creationist claim. This creature had wings and feathers, could fly, but had teeth, a long, bony tail, and a skeleton quite similar to the reptiles of its day. Creationists replied that since Archaeopteryx had feathers, it was a bird and, hence, not an intermediate species between reptiles and birds at all! Discuss the difficulty with such a reply. Do you suppose any kind of fossil evidence would convince creationists of the truth of evolution? Where, exactly, was the Redefinist Fallacy here?

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1) Coniiman, Lehrer, & Pappas - Philosophical Problems & Arguments: An introduction (4th Ed.), 1992, Hackett Pub. Co.

2) P Ricci - Fundamentals of Critical Thinking, (2nd Ed.), 1991, Ginn Press (Out of Print)

3) Moore & Parker - Critical Thinking (5th Ed.), 1998, Mayfield Pub. Co.

4) Foglin & Ann strong - Understanding Arguments: An Introduction to Informal Logic (4th Ed.), 1991, Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich

5) Camey & Scheer - Fundamentals of Logic, (2nd Ed.), 1974, Macmillan Pub. Co. (pg. 395)

6) Ronald Munson - The way of Words.- An Informal Logic, 1976, Houghton, Mifflin Co., (pps. 296-297)

7) Radner & Radner - Science & Unreason, 1982, Wadsworth Pub. Co.

8) Carl Hempel - Philosophy of Natural Science, 1966, Foundations of Philosophy Series, Prentice-Hail

9) Schick & Vaughn - How to Think About Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age 1995, Mayfield Pub. Co. (pg. 202)

10) Anthony Flew - Thinking Straight, 1975, Prometheus Books (Chapt. 3)

 

 

 

 

 

Another famous problem solved!

From Benito Franqui

Many nagging questions which have challenged the best minds for centuries have been settled recently. For example, two famous unsolved problems in

Mathematics - proving Fermat's Last Theorem and the Four-Color Conjecture - have been solved.

Another such famous question concerns the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin.

In spite of seemingly insurmountable difficulties, a team of dedicated researchers recently succeeded in laying to rest this ancient brain-twister

by using an experimental approach!

Since pins are quite commonplace, it was not too difficult to find some which could reasonably be assumed to be representative of the pin which the medieval pinheads had in mind.

Finding suitable angels proved to be a different matter. This seemed to be an intractable difficulty until one of the researchers suggested drafting the California Angels as research subjects.

No sooner said, than done! The California Angels organization was contacted. Financing was secured. The media was notified about this history-making event, and the experiment was carried out in front of a full-capacity crowd of worshippers at Angel Cathedral.

Unfortunately, no matter how hard they tried, the Angels failed to get even one of them on base (I mean, on the dance floor!) The pin was consistently unable to bear the weight of even the lightest Angel.

So now, after all these centuries, we can confidently assert that we know the answer.

"Ladies and gentlemen: The number of angels which can dance on the head of a pin is exactly...<drum roll> … Zero!"

Now that this question has been settled for good, we can move on to more important matters... such as, when are the Angels going to win a World Series?

 

GOD BLESS YOU; and Other Post Hoc Fallacies.

By Dave Silva

Our Treasurer, Harry Becker, told me that while driving along Venture Blvd., near Melrose, his wife suddenly sneezed. Right on cue a sign on top of a building lit up saying "God bless you". Is this evidence of God's compassion or merely a coincidence? We would suspect that the "God bless you" sign lights up at regular intervals and that a certain number of people with colds and allergies pass by that busy intersection. Still, religious beliefs have been based on even less than this.

I was on an airplane one night when we encountered heavy wind, rain and lots of lightning. The plane would shake and lightning seemed to be very close. Across the aisle from me a man was praying; his eyes tightly shut and his hands in the traditional pray position. I heard him implore Jesus to save us. Although I didn't talk to him I suspect he felt there was a cause and effect relationship between his pray and our landing safely.

Despite the fact that a recent six month study by the Mayo Clinic shows that intersessionary prayer has no measurable effect people will continue to believe it does based on anecdotal evidence. Carl Sagan noted that the church claimed that there are 7 document cancer cures from people who went to Lourdes. When you calculate the percentage of spontaneous cancer remissions and estimate the number of cancer victims who went to Lourdes there should have been at least 13 miraculous cures. But nobody says that going to Lourdes is bad for you.

What happens when God blesses you? Exactly how does he do it and how can you tell that he has done it? If you win the lottery is that a sign that something supernatural has occurred, or are you just lucky. Some people think that nothing happens by chance that some things are simply destined to be.

From a humanist perspective I like the idea that we are responsible for our actions and making our world what we want it to be. I even like it that life is random and strange.

6th Graders on History

The following were answers provided by 6th graders during a history test.

1. Ancient Egypt was inhabited by mummies and they all wrote in hydraulics. They lived in the Sarah Dessert. The climate of the Sarah is such that all the inhabitants have to live elsewhere.

2. Moses led the Hebrew slaves to the Red Sea where they made unleavened bread, which is bread made without any ingredients. Moses went up on Mount Cyanide to get the ten commandments. He died before he ever reached Canada.

3. Solomon had three hundred wives and seven hundred porcupines.

4. The Greeks were a highly sculptured people, and without them we wouldn't have history. The Greeks also had myths. A myth is a female moth.

5. Socrates was a famous Greek teacher who went around giving people advice. They killed him. Socrates died from an overdose of wedlock.

After his death, his career suffered a dramatic decline.

6. Joan of Arc was burnt to a steak and was canonized by Bernard Shaw.

7. Queen Elizabeth was the "Virgin Queen". As a queen she was a success. When she exposed herself before her troops they all shouted "hurrah."

8. It was an age of great inventions and discoveries. Gutenberg invented removable type and the Bible. Another important invention was the circulation of blood. Sir Walter Raleigh is a historical figure because he invented cigarettes and started smoking. Sir Francis Drake circumcised the world with a 100-foot clipper.

9. The greatest writer of the Renaissance was William Shakespeare.

He was born in the year 1564, supposedly on his birthday. He never made much money and is famous only because of his plays. He wrote tragedies, comedies, and hysterectomies, all in Islamic pentameter. Romeo and Juliet are an example of a heroic couple. Romeo's last wish was to be laid by Juliet.

10. Johann Bach wrote a great many musical compositions and had a large number of children. In between he practiced on an old spinster which he kept up in his attic. Bach died from 1750 to the present. Bach was the most famous composer in the world and so was Handel. Handel was half German, half Italian, and half English. He was very large.

11. Beethoven wrote music even though he was deaf. He was so deaf he wrote loud music. He took long walks in the forest even when everyone was calling for him. Beethoven expired in 1827 and later died for this.